Post by Calgary Flames on Nov 18, 2021 11:00:38 GMT -6
Preseason Statistical Summary
With the preseason winding down it is a good time to look at where the team sits. After 7 games the Flames have a record of 3-3-1 good for 7 points and right in the mix for a wildcard spot. The immediate challenge is that the Pacific division is looking like one of the better divisions in the preseason and if the trend continues into the regular season the Flames will have to be better to compete for one of the top 3 spots. Remarkably the Pacific division only has 1 team under 0.500 which is the lowly Canucks. The Flames currently sit 7th in the league for goals for and 16th in the league for goals against for a total differential of -2. The power play is clicking at about a 20% pace which is projected to be about league average although in preseason some teams have a significantly inflated number in small sample sizes. The PK has not been good ranking near the bottom with 76%. The goal is for PP% + PK % to be at 100% but preferably much higher so there is certainly room for improvement there. There is a reason for optimism in their shots for/against percentage currently sits 5th in the league at 118% indicating that a little more puck luck would see some regression to the mean and a better GF/GA ratio.
Let's have a look at some of the individual performance positives for the Flames so far:
1. Rasmus Dahlin (2G-6A) and Miro Heiskanen (3G-3A) have justified their round 1 and 2 selections and the sky is the limit for these youngsters.
2. Later round veteran picks in TJ Oshie (4G-3A) and Evander Kane (3G-3A) have certainly held up their end of the bargain.
3. Sean Monahan has seemingly added a strong playmaking aspect to his game leading all forwards with 5 assists.
4. David Krejci has performed well in a veteran 2C role with 3G-2A.
5. There were some doubts as to whether Tomas Tatar was a good fit in a teams top 6 but his 2G-3A line looks the part.
Now lets look at the bad:
1. The goaltending has been atrocious as Mike Smith sports a 0.893 SV% and Petr Mrazek has been even worse with a 0.865 SV%. The fact that both have a 0.500 record is a testament to how good the team has been in front of them. If they had provided league average goaltending the Flames are likely right there with the division leaders.
2. There has been almost no depth scoring from the bottom 6. They have combined for a total of 1G-2A spread between 6 players which is borderline criminal. They have to support the top 6 more to be a contender.
3. Elias Lindholm has been invisible tallying a single assist despite the rest of the top 6 clicking at a healthy pace.
4. Top pairing of Dahlin and Ryan Lindgren are a combined -9. Although they are playing against the other teams top opposition they need control the flow of play better.
5. The goaltending again. It's just been so bad.
Top 5 questions for the rest of the preseason.
1. How do the Flames get Lindholm going without upsetting the rest of the chemistry upfront? Expect some minor line juggling for the final 4 games of the preseason but if it doesn't work he might be the odd man out to try to get the bottom 6 going. Not a good spot to be in for the teams 3rd round pick.
2. Will the team try Dahlin and Heiskanen together on the top pair? You could see it but there is concern that one of the two will suffer offensively and that a pairing of Matheson and Lindgren may not cut it.
3. How long will the Flames wait for the goaltending to improve before they make a move? While waiting for a regression to the mean likely is the play Mike Smith is not getting younger and Mrazek has never really held a net on his own.
4. How do the Flames improve the all important special teams? Again a better team shooting percentage and better goaltending would likely improve the teams powerplay and penalty kill respectively but hockey is not always fair and some teams are going to below average. Are the Flames one of those teams?
5. What do you do with the bottom six forwards? There is some talent in the 3rd line of Nosek, Nylander, and Zadina but Zadina has looked lost and might be better suited for AHL duties. The problem there is there is really no one in the forward ranks that is ready to step in. The 4th line of Stepan, Pearson, and Hathaway looks outpaced at all times. Pearson's $3.25M per year could be one of the worst contracts on the team. As mentioned earlier Lindholm could be dropped down to spread out some offense and get his game going but who deserves to move up?
In Summary....
The Flames top players have been good, with the exception of Lindholm and Smith. The Flames depth players have not been good, with the exception of the depth D who have been passable. If they can get a little bit more out of the teams depth and a lot more out of their goaltending the team should be absolutely fine especially given some of the statistical trends mentioned.
With the preseason winding down it is a good time to look at where the team sits. After 7 games the Flames have a record of 3-3-1 good for 7 points and right in the mix for a wildcard spot. The immediate challenge is that the Pacific division is looking like one of the better divisions in the preseason and if the trend continues into the regular season the Flames will have to be better to compete for one of the top 3 spots. Remarkably the Pacific division only has 1 team under 0.500 which is the lowly Canucks. The Flames currently sit 7th in the league for goals for and 16th in the league for goals against for a total differential of -2. The power play is clicking at about a 20% pace which is projected to be about league average although in preseason some teams have a significantly inflated number in small sample sizes. The PK has not been good ranking near the bottom with 76%. The goal is for PP% + PK % to be at 100% but preferably much higher so there is certainly room for improvement there. There is a reason for optimism in their shots for/against percentage currently sits 5th in the league at 118% indicating that a little more puck luck would see some regression to the mean and a better GF/GA ratio.
Let's have a look at some of the individual performance positives for the Flames so far:
1. Rasmus Dahlin (2G-6A) and Miro Heiskanen (3G-3A) have justified their round 1 and 2 selections and the sky is the limit for these youngsters.
2. Later round veteran picks in TJ Oshie (4G-3A) and Evander Kane (3G-3A) have certainly held up their end of the bargain.
3. Sean Monahan has seemingly added a strong playmaking aspect to his game leading all forwards with 5 assists.
4. David Krejci has performed well in a veteran 2C role with 3G-2A.
5. There were some doubts as to whether Tomas Tatar was a good fit in a teams top 6 but his 2G-3A line looks the part.
Now lets look at the bad:
1. The goaltending has been atrocious as Mike Smith sports a 0.893 SV% and Petr Mrazek has been even worse with a 0.865 SV%. The fact that both have a 0.500 record is a testament to how good the team has been in front of them. If they had provided league average goaltending the Flames are likely right there with the division leaders.
2. There has been almost no depth scoring from the bottom 6. They have combined for a total of 1G-2A spread between 6 players which is borderline criminal. They have to support the top 6 more to be a contender.
3. Elias Lindholm has been invisible tallying a single assist despite the rest of the top 6 clicking at a healthy pace.
4. Top pairing of Dahlin and Ryan Lindgren are a combined -9. Although they are playing against the other teams top opposition they need control the flow of play better.
5. The goaltending again. It's just been so bad.
Top 5 questions for the rest of the preseason.
1. How do the Flames get Lindholm going without upsetting the rest of the chemistry upfront? Expect some minor line juggling for the final 4 games of the preseason but if it doesn't work he might be the odd man out to try to get the bottom 6 going. Not a good spot to be in for the teams 3rd round pick.
2. Will the team try Dahlin and Heiskanen together on the top pair? You could see it but there is concern that one of the two will suffer offensively and that a pairing of Matheson and Lindgren may not cut it.
3. How long will the Flames wait for the goaltending to improve before they make a move? While waiting for a regression to the mean likely is the play Mike Smith is not getting younger and Mrazek has never really held a net on his own.
4. How do the Flames improve the all important special teams? Again a better team shooting percentage and better goaltending would likely improve the teams powerplay and penalty kill respectively but hockey is not always fair and some teams are going to below average. Are the Flames one of those teams?
5. What do you do with the bottom six forwards? There is some talent in the 3rd line of Nosek, Nylander, and Zadina but Zadina has looked lost and might be better suited for AHL duties. The problem there is there is really no one in the forward ranks that is ready to step in. The 4th line of Stepan, Pearson, and Hathaway looks outpaced at all times. Pearson's $3.25M per year could be one of the worst contracts on the team. As mentioned earlier Lindholm could be dropped down to spread out some offense and get his game going but who deserves to move up?
In Summary....
The Flames top players have been good, with the exception of Lindholm and Smith. The Flames depth players have not been good, with the exception of the depth D who have been passable. If they can get a little bit more out of the teams depth and a lot more out of their goaltending the team should be absolutely fine especially given some of the statistical trends mentioned.
