Post by Calgary Flames on Jan 3, 2023 10:46:01 GMT -6
Something seems.......off with the Flames. It is still relatively early in the season but the Flames have been mediocre and are currently floating near, but outside, the playoff picture. They currently are 3 points behind the last wildcard spot but have played 3 more games than the team that currently holds down the final spot, the division rival Seattle Kraken. Unfortunately for the Flames they currently sit 8th in the ultra-competitive Pacific Division. That's last for those counting at home.
Looking at player performance, the team's best players have been, well their best players. Alex Nylander has translated his AHL success into NHL success leading the team in scoring closely followed by Sean Monahan who sits at a point per game. Rasmus Dahlin has 37 points in 38 games with Evander Kane, Elias Lindholm, and Miro Heiskanen also producing very well. Tatar has provided some middle six depth scoring, Timmins has excelled in his first NHL season, and Sergachev has fit in excellently since being acquired.
So what isn't working? Depth. The Depth is still not working. Outside of the aforementioned players, the Flames have gotten no offense whatsoever. Fabbri and Maltsev have produced next to nothing after each getting a turn on the second line since the departure of Krejci in the Sergachev deal. They are being outscored by Ryan Lindgren and Chad Ruhwedel. Think about that. Brutal. Meanwhile Kyle Clifford, Garnett Hathaway, and Derek Ryan are solid defensive forwards that are tough to play against but they cannot be counted on for any offense.....none at all. We won't even talk about Ryan Dzingel and Derek Stepan.
On the backend we have already mentioned most of the players on the scoring side. Dahlin and Heiskanen continue to play massive minutes making their scoring exploits all the more impressive but their defensive metrics are also outstanding despite playing against the other teams' best lines. Timmins and Sergachev have also gelled quickly to become an excellent 2nd pairing. The 3rd pairing of Lindgren and Ruhwedel are good at three things, blocking shots, hitting forwards, and reading the news. Wait, that third item should be taking penalties. The duo is no fun to play against but management may ask them to take fewer penalties.
The third area to discuss in goaltending. The team went out and acquired a 1B in Robin Lehner who has outplayed existing 1B goaltending, Darcey Kuemper, since arriving. It's a small sample size Lehner sports a 0.911 SV% and a 6-3-3 recorded with the Flames compared to Kuemper's 0.898 SV% and 11-8-3 record. For those who care, former backup Bobrovsky was 0-4-0 with a 0.833 SV% earning him a one way ticket to the AHL. Overall, the goaltending has been solid (except for one asshole). There are only 9 qualifying goalies with a SV% above 0.900 so the current duo is doing just fine.
On the team statistic side the following stats are telling:
- Goal differential of -12 (21st in the league)
- PK % of 81% (9th in the league)
- PP % of 22 % (10th in the league)
- Shots for per game of 29 (26 in the league)
- Shots against per game of 32 (27th in the league)
- PIMs per game of 12 (23rd in the league)
- Hits per game of 23 (8th in the league)
- Face-off % of 52% (12th in the league)
- Record against the Pacific Division 2-6-5
So what do these numbers mean? Special teams are fine although the PK is put under pressure by taking too many penalties. The second most important stat here is the shots for and against where the Flames differential sits them 29th in the league. Obviously this is unacceptable for a playoff team. The Flames are ABSOLUTELY GETTING CAVED IN at 5 on 5. Why? They have an elite top pairing D who can really move the puck and the rest of the D corps is very strong. The forward group has solid two way players in the top 6 with Lindholm, Tatar, Fabbri, Kane, and Nylander with DF ratings above 70. Again, it likely comes down to the bottom 6 who are their end way to often and appear incapable of driving play.
The most important stat however is clearly the record against the Flames' own division. Including OT losses the Flames have 9 more losses than wins. Nine! The Flames have had an unusual amount of overtime games with over 25% of games going to the extra frame accounting for 3 wins and 7 losses. Of the 7 losses 5 have come against the Pacific. All not good. If the Flames had a 0.500 record against their own division they would easily be in a playoff spot.
So what does this mean? The Flames are not good enough at 5 on 5 (where the majority of a hockey game is played) and they play their worst hockey against the Pacific Division (which are the games that matter the most). So how do you fix the situation? That's the hard part, it is relatively easy to improve special teams through adding specialists but improving 5 on 5 play requires the entire team to play better. The intra-division record is tough to fix as you can't expect your rivals to get worse. Ultimately the Flames just need to be better when it matters most. So what are some ways they can get this done?
The good news is the Flames have some cap space. Not a lot but some. With $5.3M in space the Flames have enough space to add an impact player or two. But what kind of player do they need to add? Ultimately, they need players that play in their oppositions end as opposed to their own end. Easier said than done. A strong DF rating is important but so are offensive ratings. Although takeaways and giveaways are oddly not tracked in the PFHL, a strong PH rating in theory leads to better possession numbers. The Flames have solid ratings in this category up and down the lineup but any add will likely have a good score here. With the addition of Sergachev, the backend seems to be set so expect the Flames to target a 2nd line forward with the skills noted above.
The other lever to pull would be the team style of play and strategy. The team won the first round of the playoffs against a heavily favored offensive dynamo in the Chicago Blackhawks by focusing on their own end and playing a sound defensive game. Early this season the Flames believed their roster was better than most so an offensive style would work well. At least against the vaunted Pacific Division, this belief seems to be misplaced. If played correctly, a defensively sound game can lead to more offense because you have the puck more than your opponent so we could see a change here.
Either way, look for some changes to be made. The current play is not acceptable. The play in the last 10 has led to a 5-3-2 record. Essentially 0.500 which is not good enough if the Flames are going to climb the standings and make a true playoff push.
Looking at player performance, the team's best players have been, well their best players. Alex Nylander has translated his AHL success into NHL success leading the team in scoring closely followed by Sean Monahan who sits at a point per game. Rasmus Dahlin has 37 points in 38 games with Evander Kane, Elias Lindholm, and Miro Heiskanen also producing very well. Tatar has provided some middle six depth scoring, Timmins has excelled in his first NHL season, and Sergachev has fit in excellently since being acquired.
So what isn't working? Depth. The Depth is still not working. Outside of the aforementioned players, the Flames have gotten no offense whatsoever. Fabbri and Maltsev have produced next to nothing after each getting a turn on the second line since the departure of Krejci in the Sergachev deal. They are being outscored by Ryan Lindgren and Chad Ruhwedel. Think about that. Brutal. Meanwhile Kyle Clifford, Garnett Hathaway, and Derek Ryan are solid defensive forwards that are tough to play against but they cannot be counted on for any offense.....none at all. We won't even talk about Ryan Dzingel and Derek Stepan.
On the backend we have already mentioned most of the players on the scoring side. Dahlin and Heiskanen continue to play massive minutes making their scoring exploits all the more impressive but their defensive metrics are also outstanding despite playing against the other teams' best lines. Timmins and Sergachev have also gelled quickly to become an excellent 2nd pairing. The 3rd pairing of Lindgren and Ruhwedel are good at three things, blocking shots, hitting forwards, and reading the news. Wait, that third item should be taking penalties. The duo is no fun to play against but management may ask them to take fewer penalties.
The third area to discuss in goaltending. The team went out and acquired a 1B in Robin Lehner who has outplayed existing 1B goaltending, Darcey Kuemper, since arriving. It's a small sample size Lehner sports a 0.911 SV% and a 6-3-3 recorded with the Flames compared to Kuemper's 0.898 SV% and 11-8-3 record. For those who care, former backup Bobrovsky was 0-4-0 with a 0.833 SV% earning him a one way ticket to the AHL. Overall, the goaltending has been solid (except for one asshole). There are only 9 qualifying goalies with a SV% above 0.900 so the current duo is doing just fine.
On the team statistic side the following stats are telling:
- Goal differential of -12 (21st in the league)
- PK % of 81% (9th in the league)
- PP % of 22 % (10th in the league)
- Shots for per game of 29 (26 in the league)
- Shots against per game of 32 (27th in the league)
- PIMs per game of 12 (23rd in the league)
- Hits per game of 23 (8th in the league)
- Face-off % of 52% (12th in the league)
- Record against the Pacific Division 2-6-5
So what do these numbers mean? Special teams are fine although the PK is put under pressure by taking too many penalties. The second most important stat here is the shots for and against where the Flames differential sits them 29th in the league. Obviously this is unacceptable for a playoff team. The Flames are ABSOLUTELY GETTING CAVED IN at 5 on 5. Why? They have an elite top pairing D who can really move the puck and the rest of the D corps is very strong. The forward group has solid two way players in the top 6 with Lindholm, Tatar, Fabbri, Kane, and Nylander with DF ratings above 70. Again, it likely comes down to the bottom 6 who are their end way to often and appear incapable of driving play.
The most important stat however is clearly the record against the Flames' own division. Including OT losses the Flames have 9 more losses than wins. Nine! The Flames have had an unusual amount of overtime games with over 25% of games going to the extra frame accounting for 3 wins and 7 losses. Of the 7 losses 5 have come against the Pacific. All not good. If the Flames had a 0.500 record against their own division they would easily be in a playoff spot.
So what does this mean? The Flames are not good enough at 5 on 5 (where the majority of a hockey game is played) and they play their worst hockey against the Pacific Division (which are the games that matter the most). So how do you fix the situation? That's the hard part, it is relatively easy to improve special teams through adding specialists but improving 5 on 5 play requires the entire team to play better. The intra-division record is tough to fix as you can't expect your rivals to get worse. Ultimately the Flames just need to be better when it matters most. So what are some ways they can get this done?
The good news is the Flames have some cap space. Not a lot but some. With $5.3M in space the Flames have enough space to add an impact player or two. But what kind of player do they need to add? Ultimately, they need players that play in their oppositions end as opposed to their own end. Easier said than done. A strong DF rating is important but so are offensive ratings. Although takeaways and giveaways are oddly not tracked in the PFHL, a strong PH rating in theory leads to better possession numbers. The Flames have solid ratings in this category up and down the lineup but any add will likely have a good score here. With the addition of Sergachev, the backend seems to be set so expect the Flames to target a 2nd line forward with the skills noted above.
The other lever to pull would be the team style of play and strategy. The team won the first round of the playoffs against a heavily favored offensive dynamo in the Chicago Blackhawks by focusing on their own end and playing a sound defensive game. Early this season the Flames believed their roster was better than most so an offensive style would work well. At least against the vaunted Pacific Division, this belief seems to be misplaced. If played correctly, a defensively sound game can lead to more offense because you have the puck more than your opponent so we could see a change here.
Either way, look for some changes to be made. The current play is not acceptable. The play in the last 10 has led to a 5-3-2 record. Essentially 0.500 which is not good enough if the Flames are going to climb the standings and make a true playoff push.
